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jms_uk

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uh

 

teško mi je da verujem da Kameron nije znao sa kakvim debilima ima posla, on jednostavno nije smeo da dopusti da se dođe do ovoga.

 

a reakcija EU na ova sranja će na kraju biti vrlo surova.

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neveruem

 

 

The haunting last couplet of the Eagle’s hit ‘Hotel California’ has been likened to leaving the EU: “You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave!” Lord Gus O’Donnell suggested that negotiations could go on for a lifetime; Sir John Major predicted it will take over a decade. But there is another line in Hotel California which describes their mental predicament: “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device”.

 

jbt :D 

Edited by MancMellow
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btw

 

 

Lords Constitutional committee concluded that Holyrood has no veto on Article 50, but consent 'may be required' for Repeal Bill

 

:fantom:

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Brexit begins: Theresa May takes axe to EU laws

 

Theresa-Summary2-large_trans++qVzuuqpFly

 

1 OCTOBER 2016 • 8:21PM

 

 

 

Theresa May will on Sunday announce she will repeal the 1972 European Communities Act in a move that will formally begin the process of making Britain’s Parliament sovereign once again.

Addressing the Conservative Party Conference for the first time as leader, Mrs May will declare that her government will begin work to end the legislation that gives European Union law supremacy in Britain.

In its place, a new “Great Repeal Bill” will be introduced in Parliament as early as next year to put power for the nation’s laws back into the hands of MPs and peers.

The announcement is Mrs May’s first firm commitment on Brexit since becoming Prime Minister in July and marks a major step on the road to ending the country’s EU membership. 

 

Leading Eurosceptics are likely to cheer the news after they put repealing the law at the heart of a “Brexit manifesto” published just days before the referendum. Ministers will also announce protections for workers’ rights secured via Brussels, such as parental leave and automatic holiday, to pre-empt Labour attacks.

It is intended to show critics that No 10 does have a plan for Brexit, after weeks of sniping that the Government does not have a clear strategy for the forthcoming negotiations.

Mrs May will on Sunday take to the stage with her three Brexit Cabinet ministers – Boris Johnson, Liam Fox and David Davis – to show a unified front on the first day of conference.

 

She said on Saturday night: “We will introduce, in the next Queen’s Speech, a Great Repeal Bill that will remove the European Communities Act from the statute book. That was the act that took us into the European Union.

“This marks the first stage in the UK becoming a sovereign and independent country once again. It will return power and authority to the elected institutions of our county. It means that the authority of EU law in Britain will end.”

Mr Davis, who is charged with leading the negotiations as Secretary of State for Exiting the EU, will explain the decision during his speech. 

“EU law will be transposed into domestic law, wherever practical, on exit day,” he will say.  “It will be for elected politicians here to make the changes to reflect the outcome of our negotiation and our exit. That is what people voted for: power and authority residing once again with the sovereign institutions of our own country.”

 

The European Communities Act 1972 allowed Britain to join what would become the EU the following year. It also enshrined the supremacy of EU law in the UK, making the European Court of Justice [ECJ] the ultimate arbiter in legal disputes.

 

Throughout the years, as controversial judgments from the ECJ often triggered anger among Tory MPs, the legislation became symbolic of Brussels’s influence over Britain.

Vote Leave, the formal campaign to leave the EU, named repealing the European Communities Act as one of their six Brexit “road map” promises a week before the vote.

The group was headed up by Boris Johnson and Michael GoveThe new “Great Repeal Bill”, introducing the change, will be included in next year's Queen's Speech in spring 2017.

The “historic” piece of legislation will allow Parliament to write parts of EU law it wants to keep into the British system while discarding unwanted elements. Government sources hope the move will show that ministers want to give Parliament a say on the Brexit process and will open negotiations up to parliamentary scrutiny. However, the process is not without risk.

A majority of both MPs and peers will need to vote for the Bill for it to pass, raising the prospect pro-EU Lords could hold up its progress.

 

Speaking on Sunday, Mr Davis will move to assure workers concerned that key rights which were introduced on an EU-wide level will remain in place.

“To those who are trying to frighten British workers, saying 'When we leave, employment rights will be eroded’, I say firmly and unequivocally 'no they won’t’,” he will state.

The legislation will only come into effect on the day that Britain leaves the EU – expected to be as early as 2019, two years after Mrs May formally begins the negotiations.

Mrs May’s speech at 2pm on Sunday will open the Conservative Party’s four-day annual conference in Birmingham. Despite growing pressure from Eurosceptic Tory backbenchers and EU leaders, she is not expected to name a date for triggering Article 50, the mechanism to start talks.

 

She is also expected to steer clear of the “hard Brexit” and “soft Brexit” labels which have emerged as a way of defining where people stand on the negotiations in recent days.

She will use the speech to emphasise that her Government has a plan to fulfil the vote for Brexit in June that triggered the upheaval that let her enter No 10.

The conference will also give Mrs May a platform to better explain her vision for her premiership after a summer largely bereft of major policy announcements.

Earlier this week Ken Clarke, the long-serving Tory MP who held posts in three prime minister’s cabinets, criticised Mrs May for running a “government with no policies”.

Anonymous briefings about the tight control she holds on policy and willingness to clash with other cabinet ministers have also surfaced. Aides rebut the criticism but say Mrs May will spell out her vision for social change and an economy that works for “everyone” during the conference.

 

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Politicka zamka. Kad se, i ako, usvoji taj zakon onda se moze reci da je Parlament implicitno potvrdio Brexit posto se izjasnjavao o tako necemu. Mislim, kapiram da ce i neki drugi to primetiti.

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Nissan demands Brexit compensation for new UK investment
 
Carmaker fears it could face tariffs to export UK-assembled cars to EU markets in the event of a ‘hard Brexit’
 
Friday 30 September 2016 09.09 BST Last modified on Friday 30 September 2016 11.10 BST
 
 
The trade association for UK carmakers has backed a warning from the boss of Nissan that Brexit threatens Britain’s vehicle manufacturing industry.
 
Carlos Ghosn, Nissan’s chief executive, said he could scrap a potential new investment in the UK’s biggest car plant in Sunderland if the government refuses to pledge compensation for any tariffs that may be imposed after Brexit.
 
Ghosn said: “If I need to make an investment in the next few months and I can’t wait until the end of Brexit, then I have to make a deal with the UK government. If there are tax barriers being established on cars, you have to have a commitment for carmakers who export to Europe that there is some kind of compensation.”
 
Ghosn’s remarks reflect growing concern among global carmakers that Britain could be heading towards a so-called hard Brexit, which would leave them paying tariffs to export UK-assembled cars to EU markets.
 
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders echoed his warning and said Theresa May’s government should step in to preserve the mainly foreign-owned industry. SMMT estimates about 814,000 people rely on the sector for employment.
 
Mike Hawes, SMMT’s chief executive, said: “The government must do all it can to maintain the competitiveness of the UK automotive sector, which has been hugely successful in boosting exports, creating jobs and generating economic growth in recent years.” 
 
Nissan, which builds about a third of Britain’s total car output at its plant in Sunderland, is due to decide early next year on where to build its next Qashqai sport utility vehicle.
 
Another Japanese carmaker, Toyota, has also expressed concerns about Brexit, saying the imposition of duties would make running its English plant “very, very tough”.
 
The result of June’s EU referendum took many investors and chief executives by surprise, triggering political and financial turmoil and the biggest ever one-day fall in sterling against the dollar.
 
May’s government has tried to reassure manufacturers that Britain is open for business and that it will take their views into account during negotiations on new trade relations with the EU.
 
Ghosn said: “The UK government … is talking with all the investors in the UK and saying: ‘OK, where are you concerned? What kind of problems do you have? What would make you stay?’ And we’ve been very clear.
 
“They will take this into consideration, build a policy, and as a function of this policy we will make a decision.”
 
Britain is expected to trigger formal divorce talks from the EU early next year, and the negotiations are expected to last two years. It is unclear whether Britian will have full access to EU markets when it leaves.
 
The British government says it will get the right deal but some businesses, especially those that export most of their finished products to the continent, are worried they may have to pay tariffs to sell goods into EU markets once Britain leaves.
 
Toyota’s executive vice-president said on Thursday it would be tough for its UK plant if Britain failed to achieve an unfettered free-trade deal with European nations.
 
The challenge for all of us in the UK is to stay competitive because 85% of our production from the UK plant is exported to continental Europe,” Didier Leroy said.
 
“If 85% has to pay trade duties it will be very, very tough but we want to stay committed to the UK business and our factory in the UK,” he said.
 
Škoda’s chief executive, Bernhard Maier, said it was important for Britain to bring clarity as quickly as possible. “For us it would be very helpful if it were not to become a nail-biter but rather if there were to be concrete decisions that one can really adjust to,” he said.
 
 
Pa kada krenu da im traže atest za svaku komponentu u svakom tovaru. Te necarinske barijere će da ih ugrobare. 

 

 

 

Izvoze te fabrike vise od 50% u EU.

 

Ali...

 

 

After a revival of sorts powered by the arrival of the Japanese carmakers, fears about the future of the industry resurfaced in 2005, with the collapse of MG Rover. PSA Peugeot Citroën closed its Ryton factory in Coventry two years later in favour of a plant in eastern Europe, as the financial crisis began to bite.

But since then the UK has built a reputation as a top-level producer with a bias towards high-margin, medium and large premium cars and specialist products such as the all-electric Nissan Leaf and the Toyota Auris, Europe’s first mass-produced hybrid.

That has left successfully fostered a thriving industry of mass-market and premium names — such as Nissan, JLR and BMW’s Mini, which account for three-quarters of production — along with smaller luxury brands and niche producers, such as Aston Martin.

The average value of cars exported from the UK has doubled over the past decade, from £10,200 in 2004 to £21,900 last year. “It’s a very well-balanced industry … not dependent on cheaper cars fighting tooth and nail in the basement of the market,” says Prof Rhys.

 

Nije sve u troskovima, izgleda da ima nesto i u know-how, inace bi sve tri marke bile u Slovackoj.

 

Sad, da li je u pitanju samo blef auto industrije u UK u legitimnom pokusaju da se izmuze sto vise poreskih olaksica a la Irska, ne znam ali nije bas da ce odma' da idu negde drugde zbog Brexit-a.

 

Naravno, Vlada je u pravu da mogu da ih buse preko necarinskih barijera ali to je igra sa obe strane. UK jeste mala u odnosu na EU, ali ipak nije toliko beznacajan igrac. Rec je o cetvrtoj-petoj svetskoj ekonomiji. Trgovinski ratovi su odsecanje kite svima umesanima, kao sto slucaj Rusije i sankcija pokazuje.

Edited by Budja
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sestoj

 

ali ono sto (se prave da) ne shvataju da ovo nije, cak nije dominantno, ekonomsko pitanje. i nije pitanje bilateralnih odnosa. to je osnovni problem ovih britanskih strategija i "strategija" koje citamo. recimo:

 

 

Without a formal agreement, most things, like security cooperation, would carry on anyway because they have to. Complicated things like patent and data law could be quickly sorted out afterwards. Of course, the big threat is loss of access to the single market, but the UK could start by making it clear we are offering zero tariffs for EU imports, and an open UK market for EU services as now, and that we would implement this unilaterally pro tem in the absence of a withdrawal agreement. What would the EU do? Would they really want to slap on their own tariffs and protectionism anyway?

There are two other factors that will drive the UK and the EU towards a quick free trade deal, pre- or post-Brexit. We often pointed out that the UK imports £70bn more from the EU than we export to them, and Remainers always talked down this strength in the UK position. True, while 44% of our exports go to the EU, only 8% of EU exports come to us. But as thinktank Civitas explains, protectionism would threaten a far bigger share of jobs in the other EU states than in the UK. UK exports to Germany are estimated to support 752,000 jobs, or 2.4% of UK jobs, but 1.3 million German jobs depend upon their exports to the UK, which is 3.2%. This pattern is repeated across the entire EU. UK exports to France support 1.7% of our jobs, but theirs to the UK support 2.4% of jobs in the France; to Italy, it is 0.9% vs 1.7%; for Belgium, it is 0.8% vs 7.8%; and for Ireland it is 1.4% vs 9.5%. Which countries would rationally support anything but free trade?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/01/brexit-clean-quick-break-article-50-bernard-jenkin

 

prva stvar, sto se tice ekonomije, ni tu nije tako prosto. neki, recimo finansijski, ali i ne samo finansijski, sektori ce ipak deo premestiti u EU27. pitanje je koja je racunica.

 

ali najvaznije - to je politicko samoubistvo, mogu da ukinu EU odmah. A i ne funkcionise tako, potreban je konsenzus za trade deal sa UK. Igranje na tu kartu je tesko kockanje koe moze katastrofalno da se zavrsi tj novom i jos vecom recesijom bez problema. 

Edited by MancMellow
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sestoj

 

ali ono sto (se prave da) ne shvataju da ovo nije, cak nije dominantno, ekonomsko pitanje. i nije pitanje bilateralnih odnosa. to je osnovni problem ovih britanskih strategija i "strategija" koje citamo. recimo:

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/01/brexit-clean-quick-break-article-50-bernard-jenkin

 

prva stvar, sto se tice ekonomije, ni tu nije tako prosto. neki, recimo finansijski, ali i ne samo finansijski, sektori ce ipak deo premestiti u EU27. pitanje je koja je racunica.

 

ali najvaznije - to je politicko samoubistvo, mogu da ukinu EU odmah. A i ne funkcionise tako, potreban je konsenzus za trade deal sa UK. Igranje na tu kartu je tesko kockanje koe moze katastrofalno da se zavrsi tj novom i jos vecom recesijom bez problema. 

 

Onda se prica o najebavanju Britanaca svodi na odrzavanje iznad vode EU.

 

No, upravo je rec o tome da Britanija nije Irska pa EU ne moze joj se najebe majke kao sto bi se najebala majke Grckoj a da i sebi delom ne odsece patku, sto, opet, moze da dovede do dalje nestabilinosti i nezadovoljstva u okviru EU kada Brisel ne bude imao para da servisira unutrasnje gubitnike Brexita.

 

Mozzda u toj unutrasnjoj igranci i u EU dodju do zakljucka da je najmanji zajednicki sadrzalac free trade zone.

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Onda se prica o najebavanju Britanaca svodi na odrzavanje iznad vode EU.

 

No, upravo je rec o tome da Britanija nije Irska pa EU ne moze joj se najebe majke kao sto bi se najebala majke Grckoj a da i sebi delom ne odsece patku, sto, opet, moze da dovede do dalje nestabilinosti i nezadovoljstva u okviru EU kada Brisel ne bude imao para da servisira unutrasnje gubitnike Brexita.

 

Mozzda u toj unutrasnjoj igranci i u EU dodju do zakljucka da je najmanji zajednicki sadrzalac free trade zone.

 

ne verujem. ovo je, prosto receno igra moci, i to je sustina i teksta koji sam okacio. navodi se koliko gde poslova zavisi kome. Pazi, a i samom ti je jasno, oni navedeni procenti koliko u UK zavisi ili bi bilo u opasnosti poslova u odnosu sa pojedinim zemljama nisu jedni te isti poslovi. Osim mozda Belgije i Irske niko tu nije u goroj poziciji od UK jer kad se to sve sabere u UK moze vrlo lako da se dodje i do 20% a to je katastrofa. On gleda bilateralno, a to je pogresno posto je za UK racunica kumulativna. To je dobro opisao onaj Svaba sto ga upavo autor citira: da, 7,5% izvoza dovesti u pitanje je problem ALI dovesti u pitanje 92,5% izvoza je daleeeeko veci problem. 

Edited by MancMellow
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sestoj

 

ali ono sto (se prave da) ne shvataju da ovo nije, cak nije dominantno, ekonomsko pitanje. i nije pitanje bilateralnih odnosa. to je osnovni problem ovih britanskih strategija i "strategija" koje citamo. recimo:

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/01/brexit-clean-quick-break-article-50-bernard-jenkin

 

prva stvar, sto se tice ekonomije, ni tu nije tako prosto. neki, recimo finansijski, ali i ne samo finansijski, sektori ce ipak deo premestiti u EU27. pitanje je koja je racunica.

 

ali najvaznije - to je politicko samoubistvo, mogu da ukinu EU odmah. A i ne funkcionise tako, potreban je konsenzus za trade deal sa UK. Igranje na tu kartu je tesko kockanje koe moze katastrofalno da se zavrsi tj novom i jos vecom recesijom bez problema. 

 

Meni je to najsmešnije u tim pričama Liama Foksa i onog Dajsona koji pravi usisivače, i tako tih - oni ili ne shvataju ili sebe samozavaravaju, odbijaju da prihvate da se pregovori neće voditi samo na ekonomskoj bazi i logici. A to mi je urnebesno jer imaju primer sopstvenih glasača na referendumu - da se glasačko telo rukovodilo isključivo ekonomskim rezonom, referendum bi iznedrio većinu za ostanak, jer ostanak u ekonomskom interesu većine glasača, objektivno. I sada kada ih je to sve strefilo po glavi, kada imaju jasan presedan gde ljudi prihvataju određenu dozu ekonomske ,,patnje" i neizvesnosti zarad političkih i kulturoloških ciljeva, oni postavljaju retardirana pitanja poput ,,a zašto bi nama EU uvela carine, kada im to nije u ekonomskom interesu?" Pa budale, zato što postoje i politički interesi i oni su često iznad ekonomskih. I imamo primer u EU već - sankcije prema Rusiji. Te sankcije nisu u interesu ogromne većine EU zemalja, na prvom mestu Nemačke (nemačka industrija se najviše buni oko toga i traži već godinu dana njihovo ukidanje - odmah), pa opet sankcije ostaju. Nisu u ekonomskom interesu Poljske npr. uopšte, pa Poljska prva jako i do samog kraja iz geopolitičkog razloga gura te sankcije, Poljska će poslednja pristati na njihovo ukidanje. I tako dalje. Sankcije opstaju jer postoji jaka politička logika iza njih. Kao što će postojati jaka politička logika uvođenja carina ili nečeg sličnog Britaniji ukoliko Britanija ne želi da igra po pravilima jedinstvenog tržišta. Ili totalno slepilo, ili totalno laganje i ignorisanje stvarnosti - a šta god da je, ako takvi likovi budu imali glavnu reč završiće se brodolomom. I više će stradati Britanija.

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Mozzda u toj unutrasnjoj igranci i u EU dodju do zakljucka da je najmanji zajednicki sadrzalac free trade zone.

 

Ali šta je tačno "free trade zone"?

 

Free trade zone je npr. NAFTA, pa NAFTA nije isto što i jedinstveno tržište EU (EEA). Mislim da je jasno da Britanija ne može zadržati isti pristup tržištu bez da prihvati slobodu kretanja - a to je ono što Britanija ne želi da prihvati. Na kraju će se potpisati nešto što će se zvati "EU-UK Free Trade Agreement" ali neće to biti potpuno slobodna trgovina - nema nikakve šanse. Nula.

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prva stvar, sto se tice ekonomije, ni tu nije tako prosto. neki, recimo finansijski, ali i ne samo finansijski, sektori ce ipak deo premestiti u EU27. pitanje je koja je racunica.

 

Još jedno ogromno samozavaranje - svaki britanski komentator koji tvrdi ,,ne može ništa osim slobodne trgovine jer nije ništa drugo racionalno" ignoriše jednu bitnu činjenicu - supstituciju. Da li je ono što Britanija nudi EU tržištu toliko unikatno da ne može da se zameni?

 

Zamislimo prestanak slobodne trgovine i prebacivanje na WTO režim i carine. Onda neki nemački automobili više neće ići iz nemačkih fabrika u Britaniju - to je tačno. Ali isto tako neki britanski automobili neće ići u Irsku iz britanskih fabrika, gde sada idu. Pa će oni nemački automobili koji nisu završili kod Britanaca delimično završiti kod Iraca. A britanski će završiti gde...? Nigde. Tj. vrlo verovatno neće izaći van granica UK.

 

Ne mora ni 1-na-1 supstitucija. OK, nemačka auto-industrija neće izvoziti više toliko u UK, pa će ostati neki ljudi bez posla. Ali mr. Dajson neće izvoziti više u EU ni blizu toliko svojih fensi visokokvalitetnih usisivača, pa će nemački proizvođači visokvalitenih usisivača popuniti tu rupu na tržištu EU, i imaće razlog da povećaju proizvodnju i zaposle još ljudi, npr. nekog ko je ostao bez posla u Folksvagenu. Itd. Mislim shvatate šta hoću da kažem. EU je jedinstveno tržište, i tih 8% izgubljenog izvoza (a neće se sve izgubiti, jer i pored carina će se neki proizvodi prodavati - sa višom cenom i/ili manjom maržom, plus neće ni sve promene da se dese preko noći jer ne mogu ljudi firme preko noći da menjaju dobavljače, logističke lance i sl.) će mnogo lakše da se nadoknadi unutar samo tržišta EU, nego što će UK na svom tržištu da nadomesti 44% izgubljenog izvoza (opet, naravno, neće ga izgubiti celog).

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Meni je to najsmešnije u tim pričama Liama Foksa i onog Dajsona koji pravi usisivače, i tako tih - oni ili ne shvataju ili sebe samozavaravaju, odbijaju da prihvate da se pregovori neće voditi samo na ekonomskoj bazi i logici. A to mi je urnebesno jer imaju primer sopstvenih glasača na referendumu - da se glasačko telo rukovodilo isključivo ekonomskim rezonom, referendum bi iznedrio većinu za ostanak, jer ostanak u ekonomskom interesu većine glasača, objektivno. I sada kada ih je to sve strefilo po glavi, kada imaju jasan presedan gde ljudi prihvataju određenu dozu ekonomske ,,patnje" i neizvesnosti zarad političkih i kulturoloških ciljeva, oni postavljaju retardirana pitanja poput ,,a zašto bi nama EU uvela carine, kada im to nije u ekonomskom interesu?" Pa budale, zato što postoje i politički interesi i oni su često iznad ekonomskih. I imamo primer u EU već - sankcije prema Rusiji. Te sankcije nisu u interesu ogromne većine EU zemalja, na prvom mestu Nemačke (nemačka industrija se najviše buni oko toga i traži već godinu dana njihovo ukidanje - odmah), pa opet sankcije ostaju. Nisu u ekonomskom interesu Poljske npr. uopšte, pa Poljska prva jako i do samog kraja iz geopolitičkog razloga gura te sankcije, Poljska će poslednja pristati na njihovo ukidanje. I tako dalje. Sankcije opstaju jer postoji jaka politička logika iza njih. Kao što će postojati jaka politička logika uvođenja carina ili nečeg sličnog Britaniji ukoliko Britanija ne želi da igra po pravilima jedinstvenog tržišta. Ili totalno slepilo, ili totalno laganje i ignorisanje stvarnosti - a šta god da je, ako takvi likovi budu imali glavnu reč završiće se brodolomom. I više će stradati Britanija.

 

EU identitet je izradjen na ekonomiji - nema boljeg zivota, cao EU.

To nije slucaj sa nacionalnim drzavama.

Stoga je ponder ekonomije u okviru EU znacajno veci nego kod Britanije.

 

Ceha, Poljaka, Nemca ili Grka bole patka da silji patku na Britancu ako ce mu to uzeti koji euro iz dzepa.

 

Sankcije prema Rusiji su odlican primer koji ukazuje na to. Poljska, iz licnog identiteta, drzi sankcije prema Rusiji. Takve "emocije" i poltiicki pritisak ne postoji prema Britaniji i pored silnih Poljaka koji tamo zive i rade.

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