BrExit?

[Marvin (Paranoid Android)]

Nevezano za Breksit, ali najludje u celoj prici je to sto Boing niti je ucestvovao na Deltinom tenderu niti ima proizvod kojem bi Bombardjeova C-klasa bila konkurencija, no ipak su se nasli pozvani da tuze. A cak i oni su zahtevali tarifu od 80% - niko nije ocekivao 220%.

 

Koliko sam čitao o temi (iako priznajem da se razumem kao Marica u...) ova odluka je čist protekcionizam i verovatno će da popije neku presudu i kaznu WTO (za 3-4 godine) ili je ipak prazna pretnja koja će da padne u vodu pre ili kasnije, toliko se čini naduvana da prosto deluje na "ako prođe - prođe" princip.

 

Ali prevashodno sam ovde okačio baš ono što je vezano za Brexit. Pre referenduma, a bogami i posle, idioti poput Liama Foxa i Borisa Džonsona su na sva zvona udarali kako ćemo nakon Brexita ko iz pičke da potpišemo superpovoljne trgovačke dilove sa Amerikom, Kanadom, Australijom, Indijom, Japanom, šta sa Kinom bre daj pet Kina. Pri tome se najviše uzdamo u Trampa, jebo te, Trampa, aj što menja suštinske političke stavove na svakih 48 sati, ali u čoveka koji je izgradio političku karijeru na protekcionizmu i udaljavanju od free-trade sporazuma, a prva dva puta kad je iko spomenuo bilo kakvu mogućnost realnog sporazuma sa USA, prvo pitanje se postavilo oko standarda hrane koju bismo uvozili sa slobodarskog, deregulisanog USA tržišta (chlorinated chicken), a sad vidimo do kojih mera idu američke institucije da zaštite kompanije od konkurencije.

[Marvin (Paranoid Android)]

Oh™

 

Trump opposes EU-UK WTO deal in blow to May’s Brexit plans

 

Move shows US likely to drive hard bargain as Britain navigates departure from Europe

 

The Trump administration has joined a group of countries objecting to a deal between the UK and EU to divide valuable agricultural import quotas, in a sign of how the US and others plan to use Brexit to force the UK to further open its sensitive market for farm products. 
 

President Donald Trump has been one of the most prominent international backers of Brexit and has vowed quickly to negotiate a “beautiful trade deal” with the UK after it leaves the EU.

 

 

 

But his administration’s objection to a preliminary plan, agreed to by Brussels and London over how to split the EU’s existing “tariff rate quotas” under World Trade Organisation rules after the UK assumes its own WTO obligations following Brexit, illustrates how Washington is likely to drive a hard bargain. 

 

It also undermines efforts by the May government in London this week to portray the WTO deal with the EU as a significant win, something made doubly painful by Mr Trump’s past backing of Brexit. 

 

The US joined other major agricultural exporters including Argentina, Brazil and New Zealand in signing a letter sent last week to the EU and UK’s WTO ambassadors objecting to the plan to split the quotas that cover everything from New Zealand butter and lamb to US poultry and wheat. 

 

Under WTO rules, those country-specific quotas allow low-tariff imports up to a certain volume with tariffs increasing after that. As such, they are seen as hugely valuable to countries such as Argentina and New Zealand that depend heavily on agricultural exports and the powerful farm lobby in the US. 

 

While the UK was a founding member of the WTO and one of the first signatories of its predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, its membership obligations until now have been managed by the EU. 

 

The EU-UK plan calls for the existing EU quotas to be split between the EU and UK after Brexit based on historical imports and consumption. 

 

The US and others, however, argue that method is unfair as it would effectively allow the EU to reduce its obligations to fellow WTO members and set a low bar for the UK as well. 

 

“Such an outcome would not be consistent with the principle of leaving other [WTO] members no worse off, nor fully honour the existing TRQ access commitments. Thus, we cannot accept such an agreement,” the countries wrote. 

Emily Davis, spokeswoman for US trade representative Robert Lighthizer, said neither the EU nor the UK had presented any written plan for how to handle the WTO quotas to Washington. But the Trump administration was “actively engaged with its trading partners on the future of UK and EU tariff rate quotas following Brexit”. 

 

“Ensuring that US exporters of food and agricultural products have the market access in Europe due to them even after Brexit is a high priority for the administration,” she said. 

 

The UK and EU are due to present their plan to other WTO members during the week of October 16 when trade negotiators descend on Geneva for what is known as agriculture week. 

 

Among the UK’s plans is to ask that its new agricultural quotas schedule be established using a method called “technical rectification”, which would avoid having to secure approval from other WTO members. But in their letter to the EU and UK ambassadors the US and other signatories objected to that method as well. 

 

“The modification of these TRQ access arrangements cannot credibly be achieved through a technical rectification,” they wrote. “None of these arrangements should be modified without our agreement … In the case of substantial changes affecting the balance of concessions, the whole membership of the organisation may take an interest.”

 

 

[Roger Sanchez]

An internal report by the Revenue Commissioners has spelled out the enormous physical and economic impact Brexit will impose upon both Ireland’s customs infrastructure, and on the tens of thousands of companies who trade with the UK.

The unpublished report, seen by RTÉ News, sets out in stark detail the vast increase in paperwork, human resources and physical space requirements at ports and airports.

The report also declares that an open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will be impossible from a customs perspective.

 

A year before Brexit, the Revenue Commissioners began exploring the potential impact on the customs interface between Ireland and the UK.

Irska ima kompetentnu državnu upravu.

[Roger Sanchez]

[hazard]

Take back control! Yeah!

[Roger Sanchez]

[hazard]

Brexit talks: A tragicomedy in 5 acts

 

The first round, conducted against a backdrop of political instability in the U.K. less than two weeks after a snap general election, drew heavily on that classic EU sub-genre — talks about talks.

 

[Roger Sanchez]

Gloomy Phil is gone by Monday!

[MancMellow]

EU Phil  ^_^

[Roger Sanchez]

khm

 

[MancMellow]

ceo tekst iz Telegrapha

 

 

 

Global banks and international bond strategists have been left stunned by revised ONS figures showing that Britain is £490bn poorer than had been ­assumed and no longer has any reserve of net foreign assets, depriving the country of its safety margin as Brexit talks reach a crucial juncture.

 

A massive write-down in the UK balance of payments data shows that Britain’s stock of wealth – the net international investment position – has collapsed from a surplus of £469bn to a net deficit of £22bn. This transforms the outlook for sterling and the gilts markets.

 

“Half a trillion pounds has gone missing. This is equivalent to 25pc of GDP,” said Mark Capleton, UK rates strategist at Bank of America.

 

Making matters worse, foreign ­direct investment (FDI) by companies is plummeting. It fell from a £120bn surplus in the first half 2016 to a £25bn deficit over the same period of this year.

 

The apparent resilience of FDI flows shortly after Brexit was an illusion: the spending that took place in late 2016 had already been committed earlier. The big devaluation since late 2015 ­automatically improved the UK’s net asset profile enormously but clearly not enough. The supposed surplus has gone up in smoke. It implies that the UK’s underlying position going into the referendum was much weaker than anybody realised. The concern is that the external forces supporting sterling and gilts are all in doubt as major central banks tighten policy and drain global liquidity.

 

The Bank of New York Mellon, the world’s biggest custodial institution with $31 tn (£23 tn) under purview, says its flow data shows a marked deterioration over recent weeks in purchases of sterling assets by “real money” players such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.

 

“The outflows from the UK began in mid-August,” said Simon Derrick, the bank’s currency strategist, “the big buyers are disappearing”.

 

This has been cushioned by a surge in speculative buying of sterling by hedge funds, mostly betting on a UK rate rise. Positions on the Chicago Mercantile exchange have swung from heavily net short to net long by 19,949 contracts. However this buying is fickle. “Speculators can change in a heartbeat,” said Mr Derrick. “The worry is that the pound could really go. If the history of the past 40 years is any guide it could fall another 20pc once it does.”

 

Bank of America said the data revisions make Britain more vulnerable as it tries to cover a current account deficit stuck at 4.6pc of GDP, calling it sterling’s “Achilles’ heel”. The country ­requires constant flows of imported capital to cover excess consumption.

 

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said these revisions to the “Blue Book” stem from the discovery that Britons own fewer foreign shares than previously thought, and foreigners own more British assets.

 

Company profits are lower than imagined. What was thought to be ownership of foreign debt securities by UK corporates have turned out to be loans to over-leveraged UK citizens.

 

Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, warns that Britain is overly reliant on the “kindness of strangers” to plug the current account gap. Inflows have held up well so far in the current global climate. Yield-starved investors are willing to buy almost anything – even 100-year Argentine bonds – but there are signs that easy sources of capital are about to dry up.

 

Over recent months sterling and gilts have been propped up by huge sums leaking out of the eurozone and into UK assets as a side-effect of QE by the European Central Bank. Many of the ECB’s bond purchases occur in London. Banks rotate the proceeds into UK bonds to capture a richer yield.

 

David Owen, from Jefferies, says the ECB is covering most of the UK current account deficit, a bizarre situation that is greatly under-estimated by the market. ECB data show that eurozone net purchases of UK “debt securities” were running at an annual rate of £68.7bn in the second quarter.

 

Mr Owen said: “What happens to the gilt market and sterling when the ECB steps back? The fact is that a current ­account deficit of almost 5pc of GDP is not sustainable in a post-Brexit world.”

 

The test will come at the end of this year when the ECB cuts its purchases of eurozone bonds from €60bn a month to nearer €30bn, before winding down QE altogether later in 2018. “You can very easily construct a scenario where this goes pear-shaped for Britain,” said Mr Owen. “You could have a gilts strike. The risk for a small open economy like ours is that the Bank of England may ultimately have to raise rates to defend sterling. We have been here before when Britain had to go the IMF in 1976.”

 

The spectre of a forced UK rates rise into the teeth of a downturn – a fate usually confined to emerging economies – raises the stakes of a hard Brexit. The scenario is increasingly discussed sotto voce in the City, as Philip Hammond is undoubtedly aware.

 

This would be a traumatic episode for Britain but it would also be dangerous for Europe. In a worst-case scenario, the EU would face WTO tariffs in its biggest market, one where it enjoys a big structural surplus – much of it selling ­expensive brands easily identifiable to British consumers.

 

North European supply chains would be in mayhem. A broken pound – potentially worth 0.90 euros – would render many EU exports unsellable in the UK. The eurozone would lose ­access to capital market funding and derivatives, which could not be replicated quickly. Such a deflationary shock might push the southern eurozone back into a debt-deflation crisis.  City veterans call it “mutual assured destruction”, although it is not clear whether Europe’s political class fully understands this.

 

For Britain, much would depend on whether any fall in sterling was “disorderly”. In a world of near zero-rates, where every developed economy is trying to hold down its currency, ­devaluation has a silver lining. A weaker pound might make it easier for the Bank of England to restore the ­interest rate structure to normal levels, achieving the holy grail of Wicksellian equilibrium that eludes others. The long-term trade-offs are more complex than they appear at first sight.

 

Yet it is a grim time for Brexit optimists. They had hoped that the windfall effect of devaluation would narrow the trade deficit. But if the weaker pound was going to feed through into better exports and into import substitution – after the usual “J-Curve” delay – the evidence should be emerging.

 

So far, little is happening, either because British exports are less “price elastic” than in the past or because businesses are freezing investment ­until there is clarity on Brexit. It is a bitter blow for the Government.

 

Bank of America’s Mr Capleton says the UK is left facing a “triple deficit problem”. The household savings rate is close to a half-century low of 5.9pc. There is not enough internal funding in the UK to soak up the budget deficit, which could reach 4pc to 4.5pc of GDP next year if pessimists at ABN Amro and Natixis are right. A weak pound has made no dent on the trade deficit.

 

The awful discovery that Britain’s half a trillion pound reserve does not in fact exist could bring matters to a head swiftly and brutally.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/10/15/britains-missing-billions-revised-figures-reveal-uk-490bn-poorer/

 

 

Edited October 15, 2017 by MancMellow

[MancMellow]

Brate ovo je dizasta

 

- Zdravo Fil, znas onih 500 milijardi funti u forin asetima sto smo mislili da imamo...

- Kako to mislis "sto smo mislili da imamo"?

- Opet si negativan!

Edited October 15, 2017 by MancMellow

[Roger Sanchez]

They might have no money left, but at least they will always have John Redwood MP.

 

This summer I have been making sure I can buy non-EU food and drink at my local supermarket.

The English tomatoes and vegetables have been good so I didn’t need the Dutch ones. English, Australian and New Zealand wines are great, so no need to buy French or Spanish.

Scottish beef and English lamb are tasty, UK dairy products fine and English fruit touches the right parts.

When Europe is in winter we can buy from the southern hemisphere or from our farmers’ heated greenhouses.

 

[hazard]

 

David Owen, from Jefferies, says the ECB is covering most of the UK current account deficit, a bizarre situation that is greatly under-estimated by the market. ECB data show that eurozone net purchases of UK “debt securities” were running at an annual rate of £68.7bn in the second quarter.

 

Mr Owen said: “What happens to the gilt market and sterling when the ECB steps back? The fact is that a current ­account deficit of almost 5pc of GDP is not sustainable in a post-Brexit world.”

 

Ovde funta ispade maltene k'o neki dinar, zavisni patuljak u senci džina iz komšiluka

[MancMellow]

They might have no money left, but at least they will always have John Redwood MP.

 

Ovaj kratki literarni uradak bi se mogao nazvati "Na putu za korenje"